Long-term forecasts on global air transport development

In the following an overview on selected long-term scenario studies on global air transport development is given.

One of the first international studies on the long-term development of air transport was elaborated in the CONSAVE 2050 project. The results of this project were published in 2005. In this study four scenarios were elaborated and quantified by means of the AERO Modelling System. Each of the scenario paths deals with one main challenge for the air transport sector: (1) infrastructure constraints, (2) political regulations, (3) global fragmentation and (4) an assumed societal value change. Metadata information of the CONSAVE study can be found in the MONITOR database.

The summary report and the full final report with a detailed description of the four scenarios are available here:

Summary Report Full Final Report

In the MONITOR project the framework data and main air transport related assumptions were updated. A presentation on the updating work on the framework data (like population, GDP etc.) and the air transport adjustments is available here:

CONSAVE Update Presentation

The ICAO CAEP Forecasting and Economic Analysis Support Group (FESG) elaborated an air transport scenario study with a 2040 time horizon. The results of this study were published in 2013 in the last ICAO Environmental report. The FESG scenario study contains three main development paths for the air transport demand on global scale: a high, a most likely and a low scenario. In contrast to the CONSAVE study the FESG work emphasises the possible range of future air transport development without highlighting special challenges or framework storylines for air transport. The economic development is considered as the main determining factor. The report is available on http://cfapp.icao.int/Environmental-Report-2013/.

In the following graph a comparison of the FESG results and the adapted CONSAVE results on the air transport demand development is given: